Voting in Bristol

I know it's not election time. But I was interested to note the turnout at Thursday's Presidential election in Kenya. I have seen estimates of between 70 and 85% turnout. I decided to compare this with the UK and with Bristol's figures for recent general elections.

The trend in voter turnout has generally been downward in the last 60 years, from a high point of 83.9% for the 1950 poll, which resulted in Labour's Clement Attlee forming a government with a majority of only five seats. The 1997 election saw the lowest post-war turnout, with only 59.4% of the electorate casting their vote. population. Despite this, or perhaps because of it, Tony Blair was elected Prime Minister with a record number of Labour Parliamentary seats (418).

Bristol North West and its previous equivalent constituencies tends to see a higher-than-average voter turnout at general elections. The UK average in 2010, for instance, was 65.1% of the electorate, whereas Bristol North West saw a 68.5 % turnout. 

With participation in elections very uneven across age bands, the higher turnout locally might reflect the age demographic of Bristol North West. Nationally, for instance, only 44% of 18-24 year-olds voted in 2010, compared with 76% of those aged 65 and above.

Within the greater Bristol area, the highest turnout in 2010 was in the Kingswood constituency, where Chris Skidmore (Conservative) was elected in place of Labour's Roger Berry. Turnout was 72.19%. The lowest turnout locally was in Bristol South at 61.56%. Dawn Primarolo (Labour) is the MP, and also Deputy Speaker of the House of Commons.

Kenya's Presidential election has been affected by a computer bug in the ballot casting software, resulting in the votes needing to be counted by hand. Electoral administration remains the unglamorous but vital ingredient in the democratic process.

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Spoiled Ballot Papers in the Avon and Somerset PCC Elections

 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

One aspect of last week's elections for Police Commissioners that has received limited attention is the high number of spoiled ballot papers.

Figures released on the Bristol City Council website reveal that of 244,042 ballot papers counted, 9,190 were rejected by the returning officer. This means that 3.77 % of those who went into the polling booth last Thursday spoiled their voting papers for Police and Crime Commissioner in Avon and Somerset. 

Alan Renwick from the University of Reading has calculated that nationally, spoiled ballots in the recent PCC elections made up 2.9% of votes cast. This compares with an average of 0.3% at recent general elections. Last week's poll clearly represented a massive increase in spoiled papers.

If we look more closely at the figures for Bristol itself (one of the nine local authorities that make up the Avon and Somerset Police Authority) a hefty 6.35% of all ballot papers were rejected/spoiled - 5,645 in total. 

How can we explain the fact that Bristol voters spoiled their PCC ballots at more than double the national rate? Or that over 20 times more voters in Bristol chose to spoil their ballots than is typically the case for general elections nationally? If we look at spoiled ballots for the mayoral referendum in May this year, by contrast, only 264 papers were rejected out of 76,000 votes cast. And for the mayoral election itself last week, only 1.24% of papers were spoiled. It was the PCC ballots that were targeted in vast numbers by thousands of the electorate.

Alan Renwick suggests that the voting papers themselves may have been one factor nationally, with their supplementary vote system causing confusion to some. Though this was undoubtedly a factor, it surely cannot fully explain the massive incidence in ballot spoiling in Bristol. If this were the case, we would expect to see a much higher incidence of rejected papers for the mayoral election, with its eclectic mix of 15 colourful candidates, compared with only four nominees for the PCC role.

More probable is that large numbers of Bristol voters were unhappy with the whole idea of elected Police and Crime Commissioners. Renwick's analysis of the national scene is again relevant:

"The perception is that some voters expressed their disagreement with the idea of politicising the police by deliberately casting an invalid vote"  

Anecdotally, Renwick also notes that

"Many observers at the 41 counts around England and Wales saw ballots with mini-essays on them."

Turnout locally was 27.9% for the mayoral vote and 19.59% for the PCC poll. The election of an Independent Mayor and an Independent Police Commissioner suggests that those who did vote last week used the opportunity to register their preference for a change of direction in Bristol's politics. This independent-mindedness also found expression in the massive number of spoiled ballots in the city itself. 

And quite what the implications of this might be for future city council elections and the next national poll is, frankly, anyone's guess. A national party that promised to abolish the PCC role might pick up floating voters at the next general election. 

At the very least, it's probably not a bad time to be an independent.

 

 

 

 

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Will Westbury's Geoff Gollop be the Surprise (S)tory of Bristol's Mayoral Election?

Bristol Harbourside (Photo credit: James F Clay)

 With the ballot for Bristol's first elected mayor only weeks away, Labour Party sources are expressing concern about the low key tactics of Conservative Party candidate and Westbury-on-Trym Councillor Geoff Gollop.

Writing in the influential website Labour List, Bristol Labour leader Peter Hammond acknowledges the "logic" of what he calls the "below the radar" campaign being run by the Conservative candidate. 

By campaigning in their traditional strongholds, including Westbury on Trym, and avoiding major media appearances, Hammond claims that the Conservative strategy is to try and get out its core vote on the day and hope for a low turnout elsewhere:

"The Tories want Labour voters to stay at home. A low turn-out suits them. They do not want to alarm Labour voters that there is a chance of a strong Tory showing or even the election of a Tory mayor."

History shows that the Tory strategy makes some sense. The referendum in May as to whether Bristol should have an elected mayor at all received vastly different levels of participation across the city. Council wards which had two Labour seats at the time experienced a voter turnout of only 14% for the mayoral referendum, while in Conservative wards, the average turnout was 21%. 

The diverse range of candidates - eleven so far - and the timing of the vote at a time in the year when elections rarely happen, may contribute to a fractured vote and a low turn out. 

If Peter Hammond is right, this would then leave the door open for Geoff Gollop to be elected. Certainly in BS9, his campaign is well underway, with the former Lord Mayor portraying himself as the candidate most likely to fix Bristol's broken transport system. He has pledged, for instance, to re-open former rail stations at Henbury, Horfield and Portishead.

Meanwhile at the other end of the political spectrum, Respect MP George Galloway will be speaking at a public meeting in Bristol next Tuesday (October 16th) in support of mayoral candidate Neil Maggs. Maggs is the only candidate from a Parliamentary Party to have pledged to be paid "an average wage" if elected, instead of the anticipated £65,000 wage payable to the winning candidate. The meeting with George Galloway will take place the the Malcolm X Centre in St Pauls, starting at 7.30 pm.

The mayoral election takes place in Bristol on Thursday 15th November.

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Conservatives Win Westbury-on-Trym Council Election

As well as securing the Bristol North West parliamentary seat in yesterday's general election, the Conservatives also held on to their seat in Westbury on Trym in the City Council election held on the same day.

City-wide, the Conservatives remain the third largest party on the Council after the LibDems consolidated their power base, gaining seats in Horfield and Kingsweston, while Labour gained new seats in Avonmouth and Brislington East.

The official result in Westbury on Trym was as follows:

Candidate	Party		Votes	%
Alastair Peter Lindsay Watson	Conservative		3124	46.69
Graham Christopher Donald	Liberal Democrat		2280	34.08
Claire Louise Cook	Labour		790	11.81
Alex Dunn	Green		407	6.08
Stephen Michael Wright	English Democrats		90	1.35

Turnout was a whopping 79.33%.

Source, Bristol City Council.

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Paul Harrod Comments on the Election Result

Lib Dem candidate Paul Harrod has released the following statement after his defeat in yesterday's election in Bristol North West:

"I congratulate Charlotte on her clear victory. It is very well deserved. She has worked very hard, with great commitment, and she will rightly earn many plaudits for her outstanding success last night.

"I am very proud of the Liberal Democrat campaign - where we increased our share of the vote by 6.6%. It was a shame that we could not persuade more Labour voters that we were the clear challenger in this seat. However I can have no complaints, and any failures in our campaign is my responsibility, and my responsibility alone.

"I would like to thank all those people who voted for me, and all the hundreds of people who volunteered to help the Liberal Democrats in Bristol North West."

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Conservatives Win in Bristol North West

The official election results for Bristol North West have just been announced.

Charlotte Leslie	Conservative	19,115
Paul Harrod	Liberal Democrat	15,841
Sam Townend	Labour	13,059
Robert Upton	UK Independence Party	1,175
Ray Carr	English Democrats	635
Alex Dunn	Green	511

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Voting in Bristol North West

Just back from casting my very precious votes in the general and local elections.

This election seems to have captured the public imagination in a way I cannot remember since 1997.

Walking to the Library on Falcondale Road, our nearest polling station, it was obvious that turnout has been high, in Bristol at least. Reports of queues in polling stations in Bishopston have been circulating this afternoon and the banter from the rather tired-looking electoral staff at the Library was that numbers arriving to vote here in Westbury had been "very high". This was certainly the first time I have ever had to queue to vote.

This was also the first election in which my two daughters were able to take part and I felt strangely proud arriving at the polling station as a family. Between us, we gave our support to several of the major and one of the minor parties, which is all the information I intend to share about my personal vote this year, beyond saying that, to me, every vote is tactical.

There were other obvious first-time voters present when we arrived, and word from the college dining hall is that many 18-20 year olds in Bristol are very positive about taking part in this election and having their say in choosing the next government.

It's worth sparing a thought for the army of electoral staff and volunteers who make this great democratic event possible. Despite the odd murmur about fraudulent postal ballots, the reality is that British general elections are renowned for being fair and transparent. That great anti -democrat Josef Stalin once commented that elections are not decided by voters but by vote counters. It's something to be proud of that, unlike elections in some parts of the world, in Britain we are justly confident in the integrity of the rather unglamorous system of electoral administration that means our vote will be counted accurately and, therefore, will count.

Hung Parliament or not, we can also celebrate the fact that whatever the outcome of the election, as the votes are counted overnight, the losers will recognise the result and accept it. One of the factors that contributes to the strengthening of democratic institutions in younger nations around the world is the simple fact of the losing candidate accepting defeat at election time. Where this does not happen, instability rules, in the worst cases even precipitating armed conflict and civil war.

Call me an anorak (as I settle down with my nachos for the BBC's election special) but I actually love British general elections.

As for the result in Bristol North West? High turn outs and dry weather have historically been regarded by political scientists as beneficial to Labour, but it is less likely that leafy Westbury on Trym will reflect this trend. Anyway, what do I know? My predictions of last June's council elections were less than impressive.

What is more certain is, that since October 1974 (the year of the last hung Parliament) Bristol North West has always returned an MP belonging to the party that went on to form the winning government. The final word from the staff at the polling station was that , because of the high turnout, the counters of the Bristol North West votes (at the Bristol City football ground) would be up all night.

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Poll of Bristol North West - Vote Early

Have just set up a poll (top right corner) inviting residents of Bristol North West to answer one simple question: who do they intend to vote for on May 6th?

Results of the poll, which will close on midnight on May 5th, will be compared (or contrasted) with the official election result.




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Hairstyles and Smiles as Leaflet Campaign Hots up in Bristol North West

A rain forest of campaign leaflets have been falling through my letterbox this week, proving, in case we were in any doubt, that BS9 is indeed the key location in the UK that will decide this election.

If only I had had the presence of mind to save these leaflets from the beginning, I could have established myself at a later date as an expert in the field, created an online brand and monetized the experience through an in-depth blog, an e-book and a carefully targeted affiliate marketing campaign.

Who knows, I may have even made it onto Mastermind:

"You have two minutes on Electoral Campaign Leaflets from Bristol North West, 2010, starting ...now."

In the absence of such marketable knowledge, I am reduced to sharing with all nine subscribers of Westbury on Trym's leading independent online media outlet my two favourite leaflets from the recent crop.

Firstly, the ever-photogenic Charlotte Leslie demonstrates her commitment to supporting local hairdressers by modeling the mature buffon style so loved of Westbury on Trym's female voters.



Secondly, Sam Townend reveals that it's not all doom and gloom in politics and that there's plenty of room for a smiley face in Westminster.





Speaking of Labour, I was interested to spot my first Labour placard outside a house yesterday, located on Pen Park Road in Southmead.

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Official List of Candidates, Bristol North West

Thanks to James Barlow for this link to the official list of candidates for the May 6th parliamentary election in Bristol North West.

Nominations are now officially closed.

Candidates for Bristol North West are:

Ray Carr - English Democrats -"Putting England First"

Alex DUNN - The Green Party

Paul HARROD - Liberal Democrat

Charlotte Ann LESLIE - The Conservative Party Candidate

Sam TOWNEND - The Labour Party Candidate

Robert UPTON - UK Independence Party (UKIP)

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Bristol North West: Electioneering Begins

Was relieved, interested and amused all at once by the arrival of Paul Harrod's non-election magazine through my door this afternoon.

It's interesting to see how the Lib Dems aim to win Bristol North West at next year's general election. Judging by the design of Bristol Voice! (which bears more than a passing resemblance to the edition of Hello! magazine which featured Prince William on the front cover) the orangey-yellow party aims to focus its efforts on tabloid readers and draw them away from the other two parties. Bristol Voice! carries a story about equipment shortages for troops in Afghanistan, a quote from Prince Charles and a photo of Joanna Lumley on the front cover. All themes, presumably, designed to resonate with a particular strata of the electorate.




The ubiquitous Charlotte Leslie, meanwhile, has been smiling up at me for some time from the latest edition of Bristol Living - more Tattler than Hello! as far as design is concerned. Ms Leslie's campaign to have yet another secondary school built in north Bristol (not a chance) leads the magazine. The cover (in front of a straw roof) creates the impression that the former Badminton School girl has been spreading charitable largesse in Malawi or Bukina Faso in between attending fun days in Henbury and Shirehampton. On closer examination, however, the aforementioned straw appears to be located closer to home. Unless I am mistaken, the Conservative Party candidate is standing in front of one of the thatched cottages in Blasie Hamlet.

In summary, the Lib Dem subtext seems to be "We are the voice of patriotic working people" and that of the local Conservatives is "We are the voice of educated suburban parents." Actually, Leslie's tendency to lean to her left in all her official photos, may reveal an even more subtle message on the part of a political party whose last stint in office featured the decimation of the trades union movement, the de-regulation of the financial sector and the creation of the Poll Tax.



The sub text of the Labour Party is harder to discern as I do not recall yet receiving a mailshot from candidate Sam Townend. Which is surprising and may also carry its own subtle meaning. Like Vigo County in the United States, which has elected the winning Presidential candidate every time since 1956, Bristol North West has a reputation for reflecting the national mood at election time. Since 1974, the constituency has elected the candidate from the winning party at every general election.

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Bristol Council Elections: Predicted Results

As polls have closed across Bristol, Trym Tales is pleased to announce its predictions for the results of the city council elections held today, Thursday June 4th.

Actual results will be updated throughout Friday. By the weekend, once all results are announced, readers will be able to make their own assessments about the skill (or lack thereof) of the political science department within Westbury on Trym's leading independent online media outlet. The ward, predicted result and actual result are as follows:

Ashley	Green (just)							LibDem (Greens 2nd)
Avonmouth	Con							Con
Bishopston	LibDem							LibDem
Cabot	LibDem							LibDem
Clifton	Libem							LibDem
Clifton East	Con							LibDem
Cotham	LibDem							LibDem
Easton	LibDem							LibDem
Eastville	LibDem							LibDem
Frome Vale	Con							Con
Henbury	Con (just)							Con
Henleaze	LibDem							LibDem
Hillfields	LibDem							LibDem
Horfield	LibDem							LibDem
Kingsweston	LibDem							LibDem
Lawrence Hill	Lab							Lab (by maj of 9 votes)
Lockleaze	Respect							LibDem
Redland	LibDem							LibDem
Southmead	Con							LibDem
St George East	BNP							Con
St George West	Con							Lab
Stoke Bishop	Con							Con
Westbury-on-Trym	Con							Con

So, results in and Trym Tales got 18 of 23 predictions correct. I think Nick Robinson can rest easy in the knowledge that he does not have a serious rival yet.

The story in Bristol seems to be one of LibDem and Conservative gains at the expense of Labour and the failure of the minority parties to see significant electoral breakthroughs despite the public anger at the issue of MP's expenses.

Turnout was also higher than expected.

Full results ward by ward can be found on the City Council web site here.

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It's All Happening in the Village

Right.

There's quite a lot going on in Westbury on Trym over the coming days. Here are some highlights:

• the Rockleaze Rangers Invitational Football Tournament, Sunday 14th June at the Coombe Dingle Sports Complex. It never fails to amaze me how many people turn up for this massive end of season tournament which sees dozens of teams from across the region compete in age groups from 7-11. Great family entertainment with the usual array of bouncy castles, bar b q and candy floss, not to mention high-energy football from Westbury's premier club. It runs all day and there is, I believe, no admission fee unless you're parking on site.

• Saturday 27th June, 9.00 - 1.00, local produce market in the medical centre car park on Westbury Hill. The home made chicken pies are a particular favourite.

• Village Hall Anniversary Fayre. It's 140 years, no less, since local benefactor Henry St. Vincent Ames built the village hall on Eastfield Road for "lectures, readings, music, exhibitions of art, science, industry, agriculture, horticulture and public instruction, and generally with a view to the promotion of innocent recreation and social and moral improvement." Good for him and good for us in Westbury on Trym who can go along on Saturday June 6th between 12 and 5 for a bit of a celebration fayre (with obligatory "yre" to signify the historic resonance of the event.)

• I believe there are also elections taking place on Thursday June 4th. Polling stations in the Westbury-on-Trym ward are located at the Library on Falcondale Road, the Methodist Church Hall on Westbury Hill and the Scout Hut in the Baptist Church car park on the corner of Reedley Road and Bransfield - which, due to the wonders of Google Street Map can now be seen below in all its glory.

View Larger Map





The results of the last local elections in Westbury on Trym on May 4th 2006 were as follows. Turnout was 54%.

Candidate	Party		Votes	%
Ashley Peter Fox	The Conservative Party Candidate		2319	52.01
Michael Henry Popham	Liberal Democrat		1505	33.75
John Alexander (commonly known as Alex) Dunn	The Green Party		331	7.42
Annia Summers	The Labour Party Candidate		304	6.82

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The S Factor

Just posted an item over on Guide2Bristol on Bristol's Somali community, in light of the news that a Somali-born candidate will be standing for election in the local elections in June.

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